Mod California Living

jprbritishcritic (January 5th, 2009 @ 12:06 pm)

well, when the election comes we will have to see. As I say I have made my guess on who will win but we wil only find out the true result when the country go to the ballot box. He doesn'tsay he is doomed, he says the situatio is exteremly difficult but Labour has a lot to use against Mr Caemron and I know that for a fact. Wait until the campaign.

morrid (January 5th, 2009 @ 11:49 am)

Oh yes and incidentally, if you read UK Polling report, you'll have read the article in which Anthony Wells gives his thoughts on Brown's situation- he pretty much says he's doomed!

morrid (January 5th, 2009 @ 11:47 am)

Yes EXACTLY after months of wall-to-wall coverage of him "Saving the world" Brown can at best manage to get within 5%. The "Golden Rule" means that this can only get worse for Brown when an election campaign comes along since equal coverage rules apply. I'm sorry chum but you're in denial. The best I think he can hope for is marginally more seats than the Tories, but not a majority. Like you say, there'll be an election sooner or later so do keep in touch.

jprbritishcritic (January 4th, 2009 @ 10:59 pm)

Don't use "matey" with me you rude person. I go on UK Polling Report myself, at te moment the average polls suggest a 5% difference between the 2 (average) and that puts Labour ahead! It depends how the Lib Dems do. 10% would be hit and miss not a certain.

morrid (January 4th, 2009 @ 10:41 pm)

A) matey, go on UK Polling report, the swingometer shows a workable majority at between 10-11% B)Yes NORMALLY govts do slightly recover but when Brown is put against Cameron, all the electoral and polling evidence has shown Cameron does far better. Like I said go on politicalbetting blog and read the "Golden Rule" and there's your evidence C)In 1992 polling methodology was FAR behind what it is today and extremely innacurate-it contained a bias towards Labour that is still difficult to correct.

jprbritishcritic (January 4th, 2009 @ 10:30 pm)

No thats wrong. he needs a lot more than 10% for a comfortable majority, thats a fact look it up. It is also a well known fact tat the government always goes up a few points in the election campaign. Remember 1992? The Polls said Labour was going to win, the last poll released before the day of the election said Labour were going to win and what Happened -The Tories won.

morrid (January 4th, 2009 @ 10:01 pm)

Fair enough,but your faith is completely misplaced and not based on any evidence. Cameron needs to be 10% ahead to win a comfortable majority- at several points this past year he has been 20% ahead. Furthermore, the polls understate tory leads: in local elections, by elections and the London Mayoral election the polls that have shown Labour in the WORST position relative to the Tories have always turned out to be the most accurate. Look it up if you like, it's pretty depressing for your lot.

jprbritishcritic (January 4th, 2009 @ 9:55 pm)

oh no i disagree I'm sure the Tory's will lose next election. Anyway the seat boundaries give Labour a slight advantage this election thank goodness. I will put my neck on the line right now and I will officially declare that I think Labour will win the next election. We can see when the next election is over if I am right!

morrid (January 4th, 2009 @ 8:39 pm)

I think it would have been far more terrifying to think of them electing Michael Foot, Winter of Discontent anyone? David Cameron will win, almost certainly. The polls rise when he recieves coverage, even if it's bad (Check out Mike Smithson's "Golden Rule" on politicalbetting blog). Gordon Brown has had wall-to-wall coverage over Cameron for the past few months and hasn't even managed to match the Tories. In an election campaign coverage by law has to be equal so it's gonna be bye bye Brown.

jprbritishcritic (January 4th, 2009 @ 8:27 pm)

I know its terrifying isn't it? People actually voted for a woman like this to be in power. Lets hope people don't make the same mistake with David Cameron.

morrid (January 4th, 2009 @ 6:49 pm)

They saw 2 terms of how she ruled and re-elected her!

jprbritishcritic (January 3rd, 2009 @ 10:33 pm)

you can hear the boos!!!!! if only everyone had known how she would rule...it would all be different.